Election Notebook

Parsing the debate, the latest poll
numbers and phantom investments

by PATRICK LEJTENYI

• Well, everyone seems to agree that Tuesday’s debate was a real firecracker, as far as these things go. “Grosse chicane!” trumpeted the Journal on Wednesday, calling it “le débat le plus AGGRESSIF depuis longtemps.” “Match nul,” said La Presse. “Un débat muscle,” according to Le Devoir. Without declaring a clear winner, the dailies declared the PQ’s Pauline Marois the night’s best speaker, even though she didn’t land that killer knockout punch. There was a lot of name calling and loud talking, with Charest, as expected, the punching bag for the Marois and the ADQ’s Mario Dumont. Still, he survived, and no one expects Marois’s impressive performance to change things around in this campaign—likely because, despite the bravura of her performance, no one really cares about this election.

• Marois’s best zinger was a pointed jab at the Liberals, who took power five-and-a-half years ago with the promise of fixing the health care mess. “With the fiasco you’ve left behind in health care,” she said, “you haven’t even been able to build one hospital.” Yoinks!

• According to a CROP-La Presse poll immediately following the debate, Marois impressed voters, but probably not enough to win this thing. Of the 452 respondents (94 per cent of whom were francophones), 38 per cent rated Marois’s performance “excellent” or “very good.” Dumont got 34 per cent, and glum, grey Jean Charest 30. Some good news for Dumont (and he’ll take it where he can get it, these days): immediately following the debate, some 30 per cent of respondents said their opinion of him had improved.

• Just in time for no one to care, a coalition of green groups has released its report card on the various parties’ environmental record. The Liberals, according to the coalition, are the imbeciles of the class, dragging everyone else down while they screw around in the back of the room. They got a five on 25, which is 20 per cent. The ADQ also flunked (8/25=32 per cent), while the PQ squeaked by (16/25=64 per cent). The nerdy, unpopular class keeners, the Greens and lefty Québec solidaire, each scored perfect. But they still aren’t invited to any good parties.

• The latest Léger Marketing poll shows the Liberal lead widening faster than ever, with 46 per cent of the 3,070 respondents saying they’ll give Jean Charest the big job. Pauline Marois is a distant second, with 34 per cent, and Mario Dumont’s ADQ collapse continues, with only 12 per cent. Even better news for Charest is the low rate of voter volatility, so the likelihood of surprises come the Big Day is low—or at least lower than it has been in elections past. Charest had this level of support in 2003, when he won a big majority, so the stage is set. If he walks away in December with another one, this whole farce will have been worthwhile. For him at least.

• Jean-Marc Léger, the head honcho at Léger Marketing, says Mario Dumont isn’t making his life easier. In fact, he thinks the ADQ leader is flaming out in a truly spectacular fashion. Witness, if you dare, Mario Dumont’s role on TVA’s Dieu Merci!, wherein the once-powerful opposition leader plays a down-at-heels boxer in a blond wig being interviewed by a big time Montreal boxing writer. Dumont acquits himself okay—watch it on YouTube—but, as Léger tells the Gazette’s Andy Riga, there’s a bigger image problem here: “A year ago, everyone was predicting he would be premier. Now he’s reduced to being a buffoon on Dieu Merci!”

• Though good times seem to be ahead for the Liberals, there is still plenty of time to embarrass themselves. This week, Finance Minister Monique Jérôme-Forget was squirming after the Journal investigated some $16-billion-worth of investments the government boasted of just prior to the election call. The point at the time was to highlight the Liberals’ impressive track record at economic management. Unfortunately for them, the paper found that only $5.5-billion had been spent on actual projects. The rest had been earmarked to projects that had either been unconfirmed by the companies involved or abandoned altogether.