by PATRICK LEJTENYI

Last week's by-election results were disappointing for the Union des forces progressistes (UFP), Quebec's new-ish lefty-sovereigntist party. Out of the four ridings contested, two - Gouin and Laurier-Dorion, both in north-central Montreal - were considered priorities. The UFP had high-profile candidates in Gouin's Gaétan Breton, a UQÀM prof, and Laurier-Dorion's Andres Fonticella, a social justice activist. Both campaigns had the trappings of legitimate contenders, including riding offices, signs and leaflets, and relied heavily on idealistic volunteers to spread their word. Both, however, got mightily crushed on election day, Monday, Sept. 20. Breton got eight per cent of the vote, Fonticella five. They were hoping for at least double-digit returns.

That didn't stop the UFP from issuing a glowing press release the next day, saying that the party was overjoyed with the result. Why? Because their eight per cent in Gouin beat the Action démocratique du Québec's (ADQ) five, and the UFP's five per cent in Laurier-Dorion beat the ADQ's three.

"These results are important because we are now considered among the four big parties in Quebec," says Breton. It's also important, he says, because now the major players on Quebec's political scene, including the media, will have to sit up and take notice.

Who FP?

This, however, hasn't exactly happened. The local dailies didn't make much noise over the UFP's third-place finish, concentrating rather on the by-election's other, bigger surprises, like the PQ's gains (they won the former Liberal stronghold of Laurier-Dorion) and the ADQ's surprise victory in Quebec City's Vanier riding.

Still, the results reflect an early trend: the ADQ is losing its relevance on the island of Montreal and the UFP is capitalizing on left-wing voters left out in the cold by the increasingly centrist Parti Québécois.

"The numbers may not be encouraging [to an outsider], but it depends on your perspective," says UQÀM political scientist Alain Gagnon. "If your goal was to beat the right, then they are encouraging. With a stronger vote on the left, that tends to bring out a fair amount of support. It shows they are still able to mobilize a fair amount of voters."

Breton says old habits die hard, especially for Quebec nationalists. A former long-time péquiste himself, he says the UFP can and will go after disillusioned sovereigntists with a hankering for social justice, a group he says the PQ has betrayed. "They are our targets," he says. "We have to explain to them that voting strategically for the PQ is useless."

Picking up péquistes

Fidel Fuentes, a party member and volunteer on the Fonticella campaign, is more blunt. "Next time around we're not going to treat the PQ with kid gloves," he says. He believes the PQ was so worried about the UFP's social platform that they kicked out the electoral jams and went whole hog on the campaign trail, even going so far as to bring in Bernard Landry to hand out leaflets at metro stations. "We get the feeling that, in the early polling, we became the focus of the PQ's frustration. But we made our case too late.

"This was a bump in the road," he acknowledges. "But it will be good for us, because it'll really make us reassess and re-evaluate."

One way they will be able to expand their appeal, they hope, is to merge with Françoise David's left-wing Option citoyenne, the newest player on the Quebec political field. With Option citoyenne's founding congress coming this November, some UFP members are hoping that a merger will boost the left's visibility and resources across the province. It will also mean structural changes and, says Alain Gagnon, a potential power struggle between the UFP's senior members and David.

"I don't think David is comfortable with [the UFP]," he says. "If you ask me if the two parties can live side by side, my answer is no." He predicts more of a non-aggression pact between the two, where each will refrain from running candidates in ridings where the other party is fielding one. But that too is fraught with peril, especially if the province's electoral system isn't changed from a first-past-the-post system to a proportional representation one, and if the constitution continues to be a hot-button issue.

"With the national question such a determinant of how people vote, it's hard to imagine a strong future for either the ADQ on the right or the UFP on the left," he says. But in the coming months and years, party loyalists say, they will be working hard to prove him wrong.